Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
